bitchy | 2017 Oscar nomination predictions: will we have now one other #OscarsSoWhite?

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The 2017 Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning at eight:30 am EST. I’m truly trying ahead to seeing how a few of these races have formed up. Again in December, I truthfully thought that a lot of the performing classes had been just about locked in, however the Golden Globes and the SAG and BAFTA nominations have thrown me for a loop. Like, does Emily Blunt severely have an opportunity at a nomination for The Woman on the Practice? Will Loving be utterly snubbed?? Anyway, it is a submit for guesswork and predictions.

There’s no egregious DiCaprio-situation this yr. Like, at the moment final yr, Leonardo DiCaprio was doing the whole lot he might to place a lock on his Oscar. That’s not likely occurring with anybody this yr. Like, Emma Stone, Natalie Portman and Casey Affleck are majorly campaigning, but it surely’s all just about by the books. I feel Casey is hustling much more than we understand, largely behind the scenes.

The place the cash’s going. In response to FiveThirtyEight’s evaluation, a lot of the cash on print and on-line Oscar promoting has gone to Loving and Manchester by the Sea. These studios are spending about the identical (excessive) sum of money on “on your consideration” promoting, after which Sully, Nocturnal Animals and La La Land are spending about the identical quantity on the second tier of promoting. 538 additionally tried to gauge “buzz” concerning the movies and so they assume Fences, La La Land, Moonlight and Manchester by the Sea have essentially the most buzz forward of the Oscars.

The administrators might be messy. I simply have a sense about this, you guys. It may be Mel Gibson popping up for Hacksaw Ridge. It may be Martin Scorsese for Silence (which has barely any buzz). It may be a distinguished snub for Barry Jenkins (Moonlight). I simply really feel like one thing bizarre goes to occur there.

The Finest Actress race is loopy. Most years, the Finest Actress race isn’t this difficult. There are normally one or two favorites after which the opposite nominations go to a shortlist of names we’ve already seen lots already. This yr, there are two favorites: Emma Stone and Natalie Portman. They’re, for certain, getting nominated. However everybody else is up within the air. Will Emily Blunt stun everybody and get nominated? What about Ruth Negga? Taraji P. Henson in Hidden Figures? Isabella Huppert for Elle? Amy Adams in Arrival? Annette Bening? Meryl Streep? Additionally: watch this class for whitewashing. I’m fearful that someway Taraji AND Ruth received’t get nominations.

The Finest Actor race is meh. I actually need Jake Gyllenhaal and Ryan Gosling to each get nominated and actually run campaigns to scare the crap out of Casey Affleck. Whereas I feel Ryan will get nominated, I simply assume Casey has a lock on this now. I additionally assume Viggo Mortensen will most likely find yourself with a nomination (he obtained a SAG nom out of nowhere too). I’ll be stunned if Denzel Washington will get nominated. And I’m fearful that Joel Edgerton is being shut out.

The supporting classes may have minority actors. If Naomie Harris, Mahershala Ali, Dev Patel and Octavia Spencer don’t get nominated, that would be the third yr in a row of #OscarsSoWhite. However understand that it’s utterly doable that minority actors will solely be nominated within the supporting classes and the lead classes might be all-white. Which is one other dialog about range in movie we have to have.

Viola Davis higher have this locked up. Severely, if she doesn’t get an Oscar for Fences, what are we even doing?

Finest Supporting Actor shocker. Will Aaron Taylor Johnson find yourself with a nomination? The sensible cash final month had Michael Shannon getting all the consideration, however now Aaron seems like he might get his first nom.

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Pictures courtesy of IMDB.

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